538 Electoral College Prediction 2024. The economist’s model of america’s presidential election estimates each major candidate’s chances of winning each state and the overall electoral college. It is a composite of ratings by several forecasters.
For 2024, 538 built a new presidential election forecast model from the ground up. The full forecast also suggests biden has.
Click Or Tap Any Of The Thumbnails For An Interactive Version That You Can Use To Create And Share Your Own 2024 Presidential Forecast.
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
The Model Forecasts That Trump Would Outpace Harris Nationally By 1.
(it’s more likely than you might think, alas.)
538 Electoral College Prediction 2024 Images References :
The Ingredients That Go Into The Forecast, How We Process Them And How We Ultimately End Up With A Set Of Several Thousand Potential Outcomes For The Election.
This article explains how we did it:
These Maps Reflect The Ratings Of A Number Of Quantitative And Qualitative Forecasters, As Well As Some Consensus Projections.
It’s early, but i’d personally bet that the electoral college/popular vote gap will be less (maybe closer to 2 points instead of 4, with a nonzero chance that biden has an electoral college advantage.)